Oral Presentation 46th Lorne Genome Conference 2025

Dating West Antarctic ice sheet collapse using genomic data (116521)

Jan Strugnell 1
  1. James Cook Univeristy, Douglas, QLD, Australia

West Antarctica has been identified as one of the fastest warming places on the planet. Large parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are predicted to melt as a result of climate change. Reducing uncertainties over the rate of that melt has been identified as a key research priority in the 5th IPCC Assessment Report. It is well understood from geological reconstructions that there are times in the past when average temperatures were only ~2-3°C warmer than today, but global sea levels may have been up to 20 m higher. Determining which of these times may have been accompanied by a widespread collapse of the WAIS is needed to provide critical insights into the potential rate and magnitude of sea-level rise over the coming decades and centuries. It is unknown whether there was a collapse of the WAIS during the Last Interglacial, 125,000 years ago – the last time Earth was +1°C warmer than the pre-industrial period. A recent ice sheet model implies Antarctica may have contributed up to 5m of the 6-9m of global sea-level rise known from geological evidence. Confirming this is particularly important for constraining future sea level projections. The complete collapse of the WAIS would lead to the existence of trans-west Antarctic seaways linking the present day Ross, Weddell and Amundsen Seas. Such seaways would allow marine animal migration across newly opened straits, and a genetic signature of that historical connectivity will persist in the genomes of benthic animals present in Antarctica today. I will describe how we used genomic information to distinguish between hypotheses to determine when the WAIS last collapsed.